The Rose Report

All congressional campaigns in California recently had to submit end of year fundraising reports to the Federal Election Commission.  Election 2010 is now less than a year away, and these most recent fundraising numbers help show which challenger candidates are serious competitors and which ones simply are not.  Following up our previous post on third quarter fundraising numbers in California, in this post we look at the race in each potentially competitive district.

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The Rose Institute today released a report on the provision of services by San Diego County. Both the press release and the full report are now available online.

From the press release:

“The report comprehensively analyzes San Diego County spending and services in four categories: Welfare, Public Protection, Mental Health, and Other Public Assistance. Looking at the estimated eligible population sizes, County spending, and service denial rates, the study ranks San Diego against the twelve largest counties in California. ‘San Diego County shows a consistent pattern of lower spending on and higher denial rates for welfare programs than comparable California counties,’ says Rose Institute Associate Director Ken Miller. ‘These findings could be the result of either an unwillingness to spend more or a more diligent checking of applicant qualifications.’”

In addition to the work of the Rose Institute research team over many months, the Report is also the result of a unique partnership between the Institute and the journalists of Voice of San Diego. This morning Voice launched the first of its Special Reports based on this report.

On behalf of everyone at the Institute and Claremont McKenna College, our appreciation to Buzz Woolley for its generosity in making this research possible and to Voice for working with us on this research project.

UPDATE: Voice of San Diego has a page listing their many stories arising from this report: http://voiceofsandiego.org/voice_special_reports/county/, including a post on the Voice blog by Rose project manager Ilan Wurman.

UPDATE II: The North County Times also reported on the study’s findings.

The Inland Valley Daily Bulletin reported on a proposal by Rose Institute and other Claremont McKenna College professors to create the Inland Empire Center for Economics and Public Policy.  The Center, while still in the conceptual phase, would expand on the work done by the Rose Institute and the Lowe Instiute of Political Economy (also at Claremont McKenna College) in the new Inland Empire Outlook and would focus on producing reports and research specific to the Inland Empire.

We’re the 14th biggest (metropolitan statistical area),” said Dave Huntoon – a fellow at The Rose Institute of State and Local Government – about the San Bernardino-Ontario-Riverside region. “There really isn’t a place to go … that provides the full gamut of resources across economics and government. We think it’s a good time to make our resources available to the Inland Empire.

A new Rose Institute analysis shows that voters in the Sacramento area are the most likely to apply (so far) for service on California’s new Independent Redistricting Commission. The map below shows the percentage of each county’s registered voters who have applied and been deemed “tentatively eligible” for the Commission.



Click on image for a larger version.

Southern California has some catching up to do.

Interested registered voters can get more information from the Irvine Foundation’s redistricting collaborative (including the Rose Institute) here: http://www.redistrictingca.org/

And start the application process on the State Auditor’s site here: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/

Follow the real-time statistics on applications in chart form here and in raw data form here.

Click to see real time stats and graphs on applications for the Redistricting Commission

In 2008, California voters passed Proposition 11, the Voters FIRST Act, which took control of the redistricting process for the state assembly and senate away from the lawmakers and gave it to an independent commission. Now that commission is being created, and citizens from across the state are applying to be on it.

The State Auditor’s office has opened up access to data on the applications, and below you can track the progress yourself. The Rose Institute has created dynamic graphs breaking down the total numbers of applications — by race, party, and region — using the auditor’s information.

These charts will update in real time as applications are submitted: http://rosereport.org/commission-stats/

The Rose Institute’s Douglas Johnson, a Consulting Fellow at the Institute, was quoted in a USA Today article about the demographic data that was released by the Census Bureau on Wednesday.  Johnson discussed what the report showed about California:

“California’s Golden State image has certainly collapsed,” said Douglas Johnson, a fellow at the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College. “People aren’t coming from other states, and a lot of people are leaving.”

This morning the Census Bureau released state by state population estimates for July 1, 2009. The numbers show California’s population growth remains slow, as net gains from new births and immigration from other countries exceed the net loss of population to other states. Calculations by Polidata and Election Data Services indicate California is likely, but not guaranteed, to keep its current 53 Congressional representatives when the official apportionment numbers are released next December. (more…)

Probability of a White Christmas by State, Lighter Blue Indicates a Higher Probability

“I’m dreaming of a White Christmas…”  So sang Bing Crosby more than fifty years ago. And today, more Americans are dreaming of—rather than waking up to—a  snow-filled front yard on Christmas morning. For the first time in history, less than a quarter of all Americans are likely to see a White Christmas. And not because of climate change. Rather, it is the result of massive demographic shifts that have slowly seen the traditional northern population centers of the United States decline over the last 100 years, with enormous repercussions for American political and cultural life. (more…)

As the Inland Empire continues to grow in size and economic and political influence, the Rose Institute of State and Local Government and the Lowe Institute of Political Economy have partnered together to publish the Inland Empire Outlook, a newsletter analyzing economic and political trends shaping the region. This post is the first of a series looking at their findings in their Winter 2010 issue. (more…)

The United Press International quoted Dr. Ralph Rossum, the Rose Institute’s Director, in an article about all of the Justices on the current Supreme Court.  Dr. Rossum discussed Justice Antonin Scalia.

In “Antonin Scalia’s Jurisprudence,” author Ralph Rossum says, “Respecting the original meaning of the constitutional text is, for Justice Scalia, the only way of making judicial decision-making consistent with the rule of law and democracy. The greatest threat to both, he believes, is the temptation of judges to substitute their own values for those of the framers, thereby cutting legal rules free from their moorings and, too often, usurping elected legislatures and the popular will. The constitutional text may at times be ambiguous, he concedes, but the best response to such ambiguity is to defer to American traditions, not to the enthusiasms of the moment.”