The Rose Report

The Illinois League of Women Voters, in conjunction with Republican leadership in the state legislature, kicked off a new movement for redistricting reform in Illinois called the “Illinois Fair Map Amendment.” Proposed on February 18, the constitutional amendment will be simultaneously introduced as a bill in the Illinois General Assembly and as a petition for an initiative constitutional amendment that will be in effect for the 2011 redistricting cycle.

30,275 people applied for the 14 slots on the Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC).  As the Rose Institute reported earlier, the application deadline was extended from February 12th to February 16th because of the intense interest.  The Citizens Redistricting Commission is entrusted with the task of redrawing California’s Legislative Districts in 2011, and is a result of ballot initiative Proposition 11. (more…)

The Rose Institute’s recently released report on Florida’s upcoming elections and redistricting has been featured in several major blogs over the last week. FLApolitics, one of the top political blogs in Florida, wrote an article pulling numerous quotes from our series and noted that it is the “perfect fix for a political junkie.” SwingStateProject.com also featured the Rose’s report in its Daily Digest on Feburaury 24.

The Rose Institute-Kosmont Cost of Doing Business Survey was recently featured in a post on New Santa Ana. The article discusses how the 2009 Kosmont Survey found that Santa Ana was the fourth most expensive city to do business in in Orange County. It argues that “some of the BEST cities in Orange County charge the LEAST for business licenses,” advocating lowering business license fees among other things.

Professor John J. Pitney Jr. was recently quoted in a New York Times article on the upcoming California election for Barbara Boxer’s US Senate seat. GOP challengers are gearing up for what may be a fairly competitive race, according to the article. The NYT reports that Pitney “said [Senator Barbara] Boxer’s previous easy victories in Senate races could be misleading, since they took place in what were more favorable political environments.” One of Boxer’s challengers, Chuck DeVore, is a graduate of Claremont McKenna College.

Rose Institute Fellow Douglas Johnson was quoted last week in an article by The Oakland Tribune on the possible financial crisis the city of Rialto may face in the next few years. The article reports that Johnson said: “city governments are grappling with similar decisions throughout the state as California’s budget woes and the national economy are striking at local coffers, while pension costs for city employees are spiking.” It also quotes him as saying that the consequences of a possible bankruptcy “could mean simply renegotiating contracts. It could mean a judge in charge of all city services, deciding who keeps their jobs, what services continue and what services are cut.”

Rose Institute Fellow Douglas Johnson was interviewed today about gerrymandering  for CNN’s “American Morning” show. The topic is redistricting. The piece — assuming it makes it past the editing room — will air Thursday, February 25th at 6am EST, and at various other times throughout the day.

The clip should be available online after it first airs on TV at one or more of the following links: as part of CNN’s “Broken Government” Special Report; by searching on reporter Jason Carroll; and/or on the “AM Fix” blog.

And keep a special eye out for the graphics, as they were created by Rose Research Assistants Ian Johnson and David Meyer.

UPDATE: The video is now online, available here and embedded below.

Florida redistricting after the 2010 census is likely to be a partisan struggle. The state is likely to gain an additional Congressional seat (for a total of 26). Despite having more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida, the state government is dominated by Republicans. The state Senate has twenty-six Republicans to fourteen Democrats and the state House has seventy-six Republicans to forty-four Democrats. Additionally, the governor and one senator are also Republicans. This study will present a general overview of Florida redistricting followed by close examination of the more competitive, at risk or over-populated Congressional districts.

This study will also consider the potential impact of the “FairDistricts” measure headed for Florida’s ballot this November.

Currently, Republicans hold fifteen of Florida’s twenty-five Congressional seats. The state is expected to gain one additional seat after the 2010 census. The Democrats’ ten seats are generally clustered around urban areas. Grouped around Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach on the Southeastern coast of the state are 17^th, 19^th, 20^th, 21^st and 22^nd. In West Tampa, is the 11^th and near Orlando, Jacksonville, Gainesville and Orange, Seminole, Brevard and Volusia Counties. The 2^nd in the Western part of the Panhandle includes Tallahassee and Panama City. According to 2007 data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the average Democrat- held district is currently under-populated by about 3,700 people. The Republican-held seats, in contrast, are generally in more rural areas of the state. Their districts are over-populated by an average of almost 74,000 people. Five seats will be open in 2010: the 12^th, 17^th, 19^th, 21^st and 25^th. The incumbents of the first two left office to run for other elected positions, the third to become president of non-profit, the fourth to retire and the fifth to run for the seat vacated by the fourth. As a result of the 2002 redistricting plan, Republicans initially held eighteen of the Congressional seats as a result of gaining two seats during the redistricting process, with new seats created specifically for Tom Feeney, then Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, and Mario Diaz-Balart, then chair of the state House’s redistricting committee. Over the course of the 2006 and 2008 elections, however, the Republicans have since lost three seats (the 8th, 22nd and 24th) resulting in the current balance of fifteen Republicans and ten Democrats.

Later parts of this report will go into more detail about how the 2010 election may change the composition of the Florida House delegation. (more…)

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale- Palm Beach area includes the 17^th, 18^th, 19^th, 20^th, 21^st, and 22^nd districts. The more southern 18^th and 21^st are held by Republicans while the rest are held by Democrats. All, however, are below the ideal population level, some by a considerable amount.

Florida's 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd congressional districts

Congressman Kendrick Meek

Florida’s 17^th congressional district is located at the historical center of Miami’s black population, in the north-east of Miami-Dade County. 56% of the district’s residents are African-American and 25% are Hispanic. The 17^th is one of the most liberal in the country; it has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+34 and voted 87% for Obama in 2008. The incumbent is Democrat Kendrick Meek, first elected in 2002, who replaced his mother when she retired from representing the district. As Meek is running for Senate in 2010, the seat is left open, in a race that will almost certainly be decided by the Democratic primary. Almost a dozen Democrats are running, some already racking up fundraising numbers over $100,000. Leading the pack so far is Rudolph Moise with $213,245. The 17^th currently has the third smallest population of any district in Florida at about 6% below the population ideal. As the most liberal district in the area, the 17^th will likely become even more Democratic in redistricting as Republicans strengthen their hold on neighboring districts by transferring Democratic precincts to the 17th. Of all the Miami-Dade area districts, the 17^th is one of the most geographically logical and so stands to stay fairly close to its current state, unless the FairDistricts initiative causes the entire map to be redrawn from scratch. (more…)

California has long been criticized for its legislative ineffectiveness. Mounting unrest with its political process has spurred a call for reform. However, the Los Angeles Times reported on Friday, Repair California, one of the major groups behind a movement to form a state constitutional convention, has ended their efforts.

Reporting from Sacramento – Proponents of a state constitutional convention that could reshape California’s government have run out of money and canceled plans to put their proposal before voters in November.

The announcement Friday by Repair California, the organization behind the convention bid, raises questions about how effective good-government groups can be in marshaling resources to address Sacramento’s dysfunction.

Despite a powerful start to its campaign in the midst of the adoption of California’s highly controversial budget, Repair California experienced a loss in enthusiasm, due mostly to the complexity of their mission. The loss of Repair California will most likely hurt the success of the proposed measure that was to be put on the November ballot.