Florida redistricting after the 2010 census is likely to be a partisan struggle. The state is likely to gain an additional Congressional seat (for a total of 26). Despite having more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida, the state government is dominated by Republicans. The state Senate has twenty-six Republicans to fourteen Democrats and the state House has seventy-six Republicans to forty-four Democrats. Additionally, the governor and one senator are also Republicans. This study will present a general overview of Florida redistricting followed by close examination of the more competitive, at risk or over-populated Congressional districts.
This study will also consider the potential impact of the “FairDistricts” measure headed for Florida’s ballot this November.
Currently, Republicans hold fifteen of Florida’s twenty-five Congressional seats. The state is expected to gain one additional seat after the 2010 census. The Democrats’ ten seats are generally clustered around urban areas. Grouped around Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach on the Southeastern coast of the state are 17th, 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd. In West Tampa, is the 11th and near Orlando, Jacksonville, Gainesville and Orange, Seminole, Brevard and Volusia Counties. The 2nd in the Western part of the Panhandle includes Tallahassee and Panama City. According to 2007 data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the average Democrat- held district is currently under-populated by about 3,700 people. The Republican-held seats, in contrast, are generally in more rural areas of the state. Their districts are over-populated by an average of almost 74,000 people. Five seats will be open in 2010: the 12th, 17th, 19th, 21st and 25th. The incumbents of the first two left office to run for other elected positions, the third to become president of non-profit, the fourth to retire and the fifth to run for the seat vacated by the fourth. As a result of the 2002 redistricting plan, Republicans initially held eighteen of the Congressional seats as a result of gaining two seats during the redistricting process, with new seats created specifically for Tom Feeney, then Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, and Mario Diaz-Balart, then chair of the state House’s redistricting committee. Over the course of the 2006 and 2008 elections, however, the Republicans have since lost three seats (the 8th, 22nd and 24th) resulting in the current balance of fifteen Republicans and ten Democrats.
Later parts of this report will go into more detail about how the 2010 election may change the composition of the Florida House delegation. (more…)