The California Republican Divide

I took a look at the Republican Presidential election returns for California and found an interesting dynamic at play.

McCain (according to the counting so far) has won 50 out of 53 Congressional Districts in California. But he faces a much-discussed challenge to pull the various factions of the Republican Party together if he does become the Republican nominee.

This challenge is illustrated by a new twist on the Inland / Coastal division in California:

The traditional inland/coastal split in California is between Republican-leaning counties inland and Democratic-leaning counties on the coast. But the two maps below show a similar divide exists among California’s Republican voters.

By combining the votes of McCain and Giuliani and comparing them to the combined votes of Romney, Huckabee, Keyes, Tancredo, Brownback and the other (more traditionally conservative) Republican Presidential candidates I found that (at this time) McCain / Giuliani carry 16 Congressional Districts and Romney/Huckabee/etc. carry 37.

California Primary Divide:
McCain/Guiliani (blue) v. Romney/Huckabee/etc. (green)

The 16 districts won by McCain/Giuliani are surprisingly concentrated, with 13 the San Francisco Bay Area and northern coast, and three heavily Democratic districts in LA and Orange Counties. California Primary Divide: Los Angeles
McCain/Guiliani (blue) v. Romney/Huckabee/etc.(green)

California Republican Divide in Los Angeles_From the Rose Institute

Even within the Republican Party, it seems, there is an inland/coastal split. If McCain hopes to make California competitive, he will have to bridge that divide while maintaining his appeal among independent voters.

2 Responses to “The California Republican Divide”

[...] divide between McCain supporters and supporters of the traditional Republican candidates. The map here is interesting. Stumble [...]

by Orange Punch » Blog Archive » California’s Republican divide - OCRegister.com
on 06. Feb, 2008
[...] Counting the California Primary Vote: Don’t Hold Your Breath Thanks to Kevin Roderick at LA Observed, Mike Spence at the Flashreport, and Steven Greenhut at the Orange Punch for the links to my post on the California Republican Divide. [...]

by » Counting the California Primary Vote: Don’t Hold Your Breath The Rose Report: The Rose Institute of State and Local Government
on 08. Feb, 2008

State Specific Redistricting Series

In preparation for 2011 Congressional redistricting across the United States, the Rose Institute is publishing a series of detailed reports on redistricting in specific states. Each series focuses on the redistricting process in the state as well as looking at the current demographic and political trends of specific districts. The Institute will continue to publish these reports until redistricting begins in 2011.

Published Reports:
-Louisiana Redistricting.
-Florida Redistricting.

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