http://rosereport.org/20091105/redistricting-the-overlooked-impact-of-tuesday-night-in-virginia/ The Rose Institute of State and Local Government Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:54:08 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://rosereport.org/20091105/redistricting-the-overlooked-impact-of-tuesday-night-in-virginia/comment-page-1/#comment-14564 Redistricting Reform in Virginia? | The Rose Report Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:54:08 +0000 http://rosereport.org/?p=1729#comment-14564 [...] in Committee.  Governor Bob McDonnell has endorsed redistricting reform officially.  However, as we reported in November after McDonnell’s election, under the current system of partisan redistricting, Republicans are in a very strong position to [...] [...] in Committee.  Governor Bob McDonnell has endorsed redistricting reform officially.  However, as we reported in November after McDonnell’s election, under the current system of partisan redistricting, Republicans are in a very strong position to [...]

]]> http://rosereport.org/20091105/redistricting-the-overlooked-impact-of-tuesday-night-in-virginia/comment-page-1/#comment-11181 The Real Howard S Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:34:58 +0000 http://rosereport.org/?p=1729#comment-11181 Periello's election in the 5th district in 2008 was a fluke. 1.) Republican economic policies were regarded as total failures, 2.) the incumbent Republican congressman was burned out, 3.) the affluent Charlottesville metropolitan area that constitutes about 1/4 of the district always ensures that a Democratic challenger's campaign will be adequately funded. Republicans usually get over 60% of the vote here, so 2008 is a highly unusual event unlikely to be repeated. The first two factors will not be in play in 2010, but the third one will. Priority one for Republicans in the 2011 redistrictring will be to split the Charlottesville area among three or four districts: the fourth, fifth, sixth, and possibly seventh (although here even the Democrats might want to keep a safe seat for Eric Cantor, a possible future House speaker). As for the other congressmen you mention, the 9th district is Rick Boucher's. When he retires, it will be a free-for-all. Demographics in Northern Virginia have changed to favor the Democrats, so Gerry Connolly should be reasonably safe in the 11th. Republicans may be able to recapture Nye's seat in the 2nd district but it's hard to envision a redistricting plan that would help the GOP there. Periello’s election in the 5th district in 2008 was a fluke. 1.) Republican economic policies were regarded as total failures, 2.) the incumbent Republican congressman was burned out, 3.) the affluent Charlottesville metropolitan area that constitutes about 1/4 of the district always ensures that a Democratic challenger’s campaign will be adequately funded. Republicans usually get over 60% of the vote here, so 2008 is a highly unusual event unlikely to be repeated. The first two factors will not be in play in 2010, but the third one will. Priority one for Republicans in the 2011 redistrictring will be to split the Charlottesville area among three or four districts: the fourth, fifth, sixth, and possibly seventh (although here even the Democrats might want to keep a safe seat for Eric Cantor, a possible future House speaker). As for the other congressmen you mention, the 9th district is Rick Boucher’s. When he retires, it will be a free-for-all. Demographics in Northern Virginia have changed to favor the Democrats, so Gerry Connolly should be reasonably safe in the 11th. Republicans may be able to recapture Nye’s seat in the 2nd district but it’s hard to envision a redistricting plan that would help the GOP there.

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