Unfortunately, op-ed writer Thomas Friedman and the New York Times are following in the footsteps of the Wall Street Journal by failing to fact-check what they write on redistricting.

Mr. Friedman’s endorsement of independent redistricting commissions is a good one. His column focuses on “the most important innovation of all — political innovation that will empower independents and centrists, which describes a lot of the country. . . . Henceforth, districts in California will not be designed to be automatically Democratic or Republican — so more of them will be competitive, so more candidates will only be electable if they appeal to the center, not just cater to one party.”

Unfortunately, Mr. Friedman gets his facts wrong when he describes California’s Proposition 11 as an “initiative that took away the power to design Congressional districts from the state legislature and put it in the hands of an independent, politically neutral, Citizens Redistricting Commission.”

As readers of this blog know, Proposition 11 put only Legislative, not Congressional, redistricting under the Commission’s control.

An initiative sponsored by Charles Munger Jr., the Voters First Act for Congress, would add Congressional redistricting to the Commission’s portfolio, while an initiative sponsored by Speaker Pelosi and Representative Berman would abolish the entire Commission and return all redistricting control to the legislature and Governor. The California Secretary of State is verifying Mr. Munger’s signatures. The Berman measure is collecting signatures. Both hope to qualify for the November 2010 ballot.

Perhaps Mr. Friedman and the Times will correct that column with one including their opinions of the Munger and Berman proposals?

Anyone looking to check any facts on redistricting can call or email the Rose Institute anytime.

UPDATE: After this post and email messages to the Times from the Rose Institute, Mr. Fiedman and the Times corrected the column.  A correction now notes “An earlier version of this column misstated the terms of a recent California initiative. It will reshape districts for the state legislature, not Congressional districts.” The rewritten column now notes that California’s redistricting commission “will go to work after the 2010 census and reshape California’s state legislative districts for the coming elections. . .  (There is a movement pressing for the same independent commission to be given the power to redraw Congressional districts.).”

With the quick correction, readers can now focus on Mr. Friedman’s accurate assessment of the need for redistricting reform — at both legislative and congressional levels.

Reporting from Sacramento – Proponents of a state constitutional convention that could reshape California’s government have run out of money and canceled plans to put their proposal before voters in November.

The announcement Friday by Repair California, the organization behind the convention bid, raises questions about how effective good-government groups can be in marshaling resources to address Sacramento’s dysfunction.

Despite a powerful start to its campaign in the midst of the adoption of California’s highly controversial budget, Repair California experienced a loss in enthusiasm, due mostly to the complexity of their mission. The loss of Repair California will most likely hurt the success of the proposed measure that was to be put on the November ballot.

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R)

Lungren was viewed as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country going into this quarter, but a big quarter for him in this increasingly Republican-friendly environment nationally could have made his seat a lot safer.  He did not have that big quarter.  He raised $151,633 but spent $68,380 meaning that he only added (banked) $83,253 to his campaign account which leaves him with $526,904 cash on hand.  His Democratic challenger Ameriash Bera outraised him by raising $239,368 and ending the quarter with $739,685 cash on hand.  Democratic leadership is clearly impressed with Bera as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has added him to the “Top Race” category.  His campaign received contributions from Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s Ameripac: The Fund for a Greater America, Congressman Mike Honda, and Congressman Steve Israel.  Lungren has a very serious race on his hands.

CA-04 Tom McClintock (R)

Democrats had hoped to make this seat competitive.  Last quarter McClintock raised $222,343 and added $145,241 of that to his cash on hand which now totals $369,340.  McClintock does not have that much money, but he lacks a serious opponent.  Charlie Brown who ran against him previously recently accepted a position in the Obama administration and no other serious candidate has emerged.  McClintock is likely in for an easy reelection.

CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D)

Simply put, Republicans would love this seat as it has a slight Republican tilt usually.  However, McNerney is not going to give it up easily.  He raised $235,045 but only spent $64,121 so that he banked $170,924 and now has a solid $847,005 cash on hand.  Republicans lack a clear front runner.  Brad Goehring only raised $71,451 and spent even more ($92,497) meaning that he would have lost money last quarter.  However, he loaned his campaign $425,000 (he has loaned his campaign over $1 million already this cycle).  His fundraising is unimpressive, but his willingness to devote that amount of money makes him a contender for the nomination.  Autism activist Elizabeth Emken entered the race in October.  She raised $101,817 and spent $55,735 so that she added $46,082 to her total.  She also loaned herself $200,000 and ended the quarter with $246,081 cash on hand.  Additionally, David Harmer has also joined the race.  He recently ran unsuccessfully against John Garamendi in the special election in the 10th congressional district.  He decided to run against McNerney in the 11th district in 2010.  In the race for the 10th district, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had him listed on their “Young Guns” page (for exciting challenger campaigns), but he is no longer listed there.  The race for the Republican nomination is likely to be very competitive, especially if both Emken and Goehring continue to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars of their own money.  The slight Republican lean of the district and the increasingly Republican-friendly national environment may mean that whoever emerges has a real chance of beating McNerney.

CA-26 David Dreier (R)

Democrats thought they had a chance to take out Dreier with Obama’s coattails in 2008 but could not.  Dreier raised $137,600 last quarter and sits on a solid $1,025,315 cash on hand.  Repeat challenger Russ Warner only raised $37,851 and, while sitting on $123,506, is not a serious threat–if he could not do it in 2008, he cannot do it this year, especially with such a fundraising disadvantage.

CA-44 Ken Calvert (R)

The Democrats have been targeting Calvert since 2008 when Bill Hedrick gave him a very close race without the help of national Democrats.  Hedrick is challenging Calvert again.  Calvert raised only $97,125 last quarter and has $519,432 cash on hand.  Even though Calvert only has a modest amount of money for an incumbent, he must think that he is in pretty good financial strength as he gave over $1,000 of his campaign funds to local charities.  Hedrick raised only $56,480 and only has $95,779 cash on hand.  Yet, as he proved last election, he can do well without a lot of money or national help.  Calvert may have a financial advantage, but he should be careful because he cannot ignore Hedrick.

CA-45 Mary Bono Mack (R)

The 45th district is likely to be an interesting race.  The Democrats got their dream candidate in Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, and he continues to have solid fundraising numbers.  However, he is running against incumbent Mary Bono Mack who can genuinely claim to be moderate and bipartisan after her vote for the Democratic cap and trade program.  Bono Mack raised $270,919 but spent a considerable amount ($147,842) and banked $123,077 for the quarter.  She has $893,754 cash on hand.  She has received support from various Republicans last quarter as Minority Leader John Boehner, NRCC chairman Pete Sessions, Congressman Phil Gingrey, and Congressman Glenn Thompson all gave to her campaign.  Pougnet raised $150,136 but spend $95,122 of it and has $402,313 cash on hand.  Bono Mack has more money, but Pougnet is likely to make it a race if he can continue to raise money.

CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D)

Early in the cycle, Republicans thought that Assemblyman Van Tran could beat usually safe incumbent Loretta Sanchez.  More recently, there has been less talk about Van Tran because he has not had very good fundraising. Last quarter Sanchez raised $229,614 and banked a significant portion of it ($188,585).  She currently has $905,923.  Van Tran raised $99,992 last quarter, but he spent $67,444 of it meaning that he only banked $32,548.  He currently has $314,797.  Van Tran will need to increase his fundraising significantly if he is going to be competitive.

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R)

Bilbray looked vulnerable early in the cycle.  However, his strongest challenger Dave Roberts dropped out which made the race significantly easier for Bilbray.  Bilbray raised $73,650 and spend $77,263 last quarter which means that he actually lost money.  He currently has $431,950 cash on hand.  Fortunately for him, his challengers’ numbers are less impressive.  Tracy Emblem only raised $11,707 while spending $30,446 last quarter, leaving her with $8,055 cash on hand.  Repeat challenger Francine Busby did better by raising $55,039 last quarter and ending the quarter with $155,126 cash on hand.  Bilbray is not doing a great job of fundraising but is unlikely to have any serious competition in 2010.

Overall Outlook

Democrats can seriously compete against Lungren, Calvert, and Bono Mack.  Lungren is in the most danger.  In a 2006 or 2008 atmosphere all three incumbents (and likely Bilbray and McClintock) would be in trouble.  However, 2010 is not going to be a repeat of 2006 or 2008 and is going to be a much better environment for Republicans.  While there is no clear front runner against McNerney and Van Tran has not been raising enough money, if the national environment continues to favor Republicans, either (or both) McNerney or Sanchez could have a very serious election.

*All fundraising numbers are rounded down to the nearest dollar.

The post will look at eight potential 2010 battleground districts.  While none are yet clear takeover opportunities for either party, some of them could develop into very competitive races. The races were deemed potentially competitive based on three factors. (1) the race was competitive in 2008, (2) the incumbent won the last election by a narrow margin, or (3) either the Democrats or Republicans have targeted the race.  A race is deemed to be targeted if a candidate has been identified as part of (a) the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)’s Frontline Program (vulnerable Democratic incumbents), (b) the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)’s Patriot Program (vulnerable Republican incumbents), or (c) the NRCC’s Young Guns Program (exciting Republican challengers).

Before looking at individual races, it is important to consider briefly the overall environment in California going into 2010.  In 2008, Barack Obama did very well in California, even in traditionally Republican districts.  Having Obama at the top of the ticket clearly helped Democrats further down the ballot and made some Republican incumbents do worse than they otherwise would have done.  In 2010, Obama will not be at the top of the ballot.  Instead, it will feature the Governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race.  With Gavin Newsom dropping out of the race last week, 71 year old Jerry Brown will likely be the Democrat’s gubernatorial nominee, and incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer will be the nominee for Senate.  While both Brown and Boxer may run strong campaigns, neither one will create the excitement that Obama created in 2008 that helped Democrat congressional candidates down the ballot.  Republican incumbents who had close elections in 2008 because of Obama will likely face a more favorable climate in 2010.

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R)

Eight term incumbent Dan Lungren won in 2008 by 5%, but Obama carried his district in the presidential election.  After the 2008 elections, Lungren challenged John Boehner for Minority Leader, but he did not gain significant traction.  Lungren has been placed on the NRCC’s Patriot Program signaling that he may be targeted in 2010.  He raised $192,700 in the third quarter and spent around 39% of it ($74,700) which netted him $118,000 for the quarter.  He has $443,700 cash on hand.  Lungren clearly realizes that he needs to raise money as his financial documents reveal tens of thousands spent on fundraising consultants.  However, one of his challengers, physician Ameriash Bera, raised an impressive $335,400 in the third quarter while only spending $36,700 which netted him $298,700 for the quarter.  He has $585,700 cash on hand.  Lungren’s other challenger, businessman Bill Slaton, raised only $78,400 and burned through all of it and more ($79,300) yet still has $398,500 cash on hand—he made a $175,000 self-loan to the campaign.  Lungren has comparatively limited cash on hand, and he will need to raise significantly more in the next few quarters as he faces two candidates with money close to or exceeding his (especially if Slaton continues to use his own money).  However, if Bera and Slaton have an extremely competitive primary battle requiring them to use most of their money against each other, it would certainly benefit Lungren.

CA-04 Tom McClintock (R)

Tom McClintock just barely beat his 2008 opponent Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown by less than 2,000 votes (after a recount).  Yet, McCain beat Obama in the district by close to ten points.  McClintock is not a member of the NRCC’s Patriot Program, and there have yet to be signals that Democrats will target him heavily in 2010.  His close 2008 election could potentially make him an attractive target at some point, especially considering his low fundraising numbers.  McClintock raised only $200,000 in the third quarter and spent $221,200, meaning he raised a net of $-21,200 for the third quarter.  He only has $228,100 cash on hand.  McClintock has a very robust campaign; he is spending on fundraising, ads, staff salaries, polling, and webdesign.  His greatest advantage currently is that he does not have a strong opponent.  His former opponent, Charlie Brown only raised $20 last quarter and only has $985 cash on hand suggesting he will not run again.  Yet Brown has updated his website since last November, so perhaps he still has some thoughts about running again.  McClintock would strengthen his position and discourage potential challengers if he had a strong fourth quarter.

CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D)

Republicans really want this seat back.  Jerry McNerney won the seat from Richard Pombo in 2006 after Pombo had several problems including ties to Jack Abramhoff.  Republicans thought they had a good chance at the seat in 2008 because Bush had won it in 2004, but Republican nominee Dean Andal lost by 10% when Obama carried the district.  The DCCC realizes that McNerney will likely be a target again in 2010 as he was placed on the Frontline Program.  McNerney only raised $247,700 in the third quarter while spending $90,600, meaning he netted $157,100 for the third quarter.  He ended the quarter with $675,800 cash on hand.  Currently McNerney is lucky as Republicans have yet to unite around one candidate (there are more than five candidates currently).  Brad Goehring touts some local endorsements on his website, and he has $423,100 cash on hand.  However, $400,000 of that is a self-loan, and he only raised $68,500 last quarter.  Two more Republicans have entered the race in the last week.  If a strong candidate can emerge from this field, Republicans have a chance to flip the seat, but they will need to avoid a competitive primary.

CA-26 David Dreier (R)

As the Ranking Member on the Rules Committee, David Dreier is one of the most important Republicans in the House.  He won in 2008 over businessman Russ Warner by over 10%; however, Obama won his district and the DCCC did view his seat as a target in 2008.  Dreier only raised $87,100 in the third quarter, but he has $940,600 cash on hand.   Warner, his 2008 opponent, has announced he will run again but only raised $40,500 in the third quarter leaving him with $95,200 cash on hand.  Unless Warner picks up his fundraising (or someone else enters the race) Dreier is likely safe.

CA-44 Ken Calvert (R)

Ken Calvert was viewed as safe in 2008 (Bush had won by a significant margin in 2004 and Calvert had won comfortably before), but he only won by 2% (Obama won the District) against public school teacher Bill Hedrick who barely raised any money in 2008.  The NRCC has placed Calvert on the Patriot Program to prevent that result from happening again.  Calvert raised $226,700 in the third quarter and has $511,300 cash on hand.  Hedrick only raised $43,700 and burned through around 80% of it ($34,900) leaving him with $74,400 cash on hand.  Hedrick’s unimpressive sum would suggest that Calvert is safe, but Hedrick proved in 2008 that he can do well without money.  Additionally, several newspapers have recently claimed that Calvert is involved with an FBI investigation.  However, if Calvert capitalizes off Hedrick’s inability to raise money and uses his money to discredit Hedrick early in the cycle (unlike being surprised by him in 2008), Calvert will likely run a strong campaign.

CA-45 Mary Bono Mack (R)

Mary Bono Mack won in 2008 by 16%, but Obama won her District (Bush had won it decisively in 2004) which landed her a credible challenger in Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet.  Bono Mack can make a credible argument that she is bipartisan because she was one of the only House Republicans to vote for the Cap and Trade bill this summer.  Yet, the NRCC has placed her in the Patriot Program because she will likely face a strong challenge from Pougnet.  Bono Mack raised $343,300 in the third quarter which gives her $716,000 cash on hand.  Pougnet raised $200,800 and has $347,200 cash on hand.  Bono Mack should have a strong campaign, but if Pougnet can come close to her fundraising numbers (or outraise her) he will make it a close race.

CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D)

Loretta Sanchez won in 2008 with close to 70% of the vote, and Obama decisively won her District.  However, at least initially, the NRCC was very excited about Assemblyman Van Tran’s campaign because the NRCC thought he could be the ideal candidate for the District, so he was placed in the Young Guns Program.  Sanchez only raised $134,800 in the third quarter but has $769,000 cash on hand.  Tran only raised $85,900 and has $282,500 cash on hand.  The NRCC recently released its latest list for the Young Guns Program and did not move Tran up to the next level of “Contender.”  Tran may be an exciting candidate, but he will need to have stronger fundraising quarters if he is going to compete with Sanchez.

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R)

Brian Bilbray won in 2008 by 5%, but Obama won his District, and he already has several Democratic opponents.  He has been put in the NRCC’s Patriot Program.  Bilbray raised $113,400 in the third quarter but burned through about 65% of it ($74,400) leaving him with $434,700 cash on hand.  He spent significant money on fundraising and consultants during the quarter.  His 2006 opponent Francine Busby raised $62,600 and spent $58,000 which left her with $144,800 cash on hand.  Attorney Tracy Emblem only raised $30,000 and spent $27,600 of it leaving her with only $24,600 cash on hand.  Solana Beach Councilman and Mayor Dave Roberts, probably the strongest challenger, raised more than Bilbray ($153,300) and has $122,900 cash on hand.  If Roberts continues to outraise Bilbray, he could be a very strong challenger.  However, if either the Busby or Emblem fundraising picks up, there could be a competitive primary which would help Bilbray.

*Financial data comes from each campaign’s third quarter Federal Election Commission online filing.  For simplicity, the numbers were rounded down to the nearest hundred.  The electoral data on each District in 2008 and 2004 comes from The National Journal’s 2010 The Almanac of American Politics.